Here is my hope and expectation: When I stand in front of the the Creator of the World for my final judgment, I will be roundly chided: "Michael, Michael, Michael... don't you think you were overreacting a bit -- let's be honest, way more than a bit, like over the top -- to the COVID-19 outbreak in 5780?" I am pray for that embarrassment, because I know with certainty that I don't want to be held responsible for even one murder.
Let's put this in perspective. On Monday, March 16, 2020 CE, there were 100,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 outside of China (which seems to have finally leveled off). On Tuesday there were 116,000; an increase of 16,000; taking the conservative mortality rate of 1%, that means 160 deaths. Not much out of a population of 3 billion. On Wednesday, there were 18,000 more case; 180 more deaths. Thursday, 28,000 more; 280 more deaths. Friday, 30,000 more; another 300 deaths. Saturday, up 32,000; another 320 deaths. These numbers are most accurate I can find, published online by Johns Hopkins, Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases.
Now maybe math is not your strong suit. I call your attention to the fact that number of new confirmed cases each day is increasing -- 16k, 28k, 30k, 32k... and that trend is continuing. You can look at the graphs yourself; it is pretty obvious that there are about 10% more new cases each day than the next. If the trend continues, that will mean about 170,000 new cases per day by mid April, over 3 million new cases per day by mid May.
This should be personal for everyone, but it is particularly personal for me. My dear wife was exposed to the COVID-19 virus. She went for a walk with a friend last Shabbos. She and her friend were both in excellent health, feeling great, nary a sniffle nor a cough. The next morning that friend was in bed with a 102 fever, barely able to move because of the body aches. The next day she was tested and confirmed to have an active case of COVID-19. (She is, Baruch HaShem, beginning to feel better and her fever is coming down.) My wife immediately put herself in self-quarantine. I am not required to be in self-quarantine, but nevertheless -- with tears in my eyes -- brought my shtender home from Brisk Yeshiva, my home away from home for the last 25 year, and set up a place to learn and daven at home.
I have moved out of our room. We eat at separate ends of the table. I prepare all the food. So far, no symptoms and no fever; Chasdei HaShem. We are not relaxing our guard, though, because her friend also exhibited no symptoms and no fever one day; bedridden with 102 the next.
I having been wanting to say something for a while. Today, though, I was at the keilim mikvah (we are unexpectedly staying home for Pesach and woefully unprepared) -- I made sure to check before entering that there was no one else there. While I was taking care of my keilim, a young man with several young children came running in. "There is only supposed to be one person at at time in here," I exclaimed. "Oh, I'll only be a minute... I dropped something in waste basket," he replied nonchalantly. I ran -- yes, ran -- out of that small room and re-iterated that there should be only one person in there and for very good reason.
He risked my life, his life, the life of everyone with whom his children have contact for the next couple of weeks. All that after all shuls being closed and an urgent announcement on erev Shabbos that care for COVID-19 is to be treated with all the stringencies of piku'ach nefesh -- a life threatening illness. For what? Because he was in a hurry and couldn't wait five minutes? Because he was so inconsiderate that he couldn't ask me to give him a few minutes to retrieve something?
Please, please, please take this seriously.
Let's put this in perspective. On Monday, March 16, 2020 CE, there were 100,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 outside of China (which seems to have finally leveled off). On Tuesday there were 116,000; an increase of 16,000; taking the conservative mortality rate of 1%, that means 160 deaths. Not much out of a population of 3 billion. On Wednesday, there were 18,000 more case; 180 more deaths. Thursday, 28,000 more; 280 more deaths. Friday, 30,000 more; another 300 deaths. Saturday, up 32,000; another 320 deaths. These numbers are most accurate I can find, published online by Johns Hopkins, Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases.
Now maybe math is not your strong suit. I call your attention to the fact that number of new confirmed cases each day is increasing -- 16k, 28k, 30k, 32k... and that trend is continuing. You can look at the graphs yourself; it is pretty obvious that there are about 10% more new cases each day than the next. If the trend continues, that will mean about 170,000 new cases per day by mid April, over 3 million new cases per day by mid May.
This should be personal for everyone, but it is particularly personal for me. My dear wife was exposed to the COVID-19 virus. She went for a walk with a friend last Shabbos. She and her friend were both in excellent health, feeling great, nary a sniffle nor a cough. The next morning that friend was in bed with a 102 fever, barely able to move because of the body aches. The next day she was tested and confirmed to have an active case of COVID-19. (She is, Baruch HaShem, beginning to feel better and her fever is coming down.) My wife immediately put herself in self-quarantine. I am not required to be in self-quarantine, but nevertheless -- with tears in my eyes -- brought my shtender home from Brisk Yeshiva, my home away from home for the last 25 year, and set up a place to learn and daven at home.
I have moved out of our room. We eat at separate ends of the table. I prepare all the food. So far, no symptoms and no fever; Chasdei HaShem. We are not relaxing our guard, though, because her friend also exhibited no symptoms and no fever one day; bedridden with 102 the next.
I having been wanting to say something for a while. Today, though, I was at the keilim mikvah (we are unexpectedly staying home for Pesach and woefully unprepared) -- I made sure to check before entering that there was no one else there. While I was taking care of my keilim, a young man with several young children came running in. "There is only supposed to be one person at at time in here," I exclaimed. "Oh, I'll only be a minute... I dropped something in waste basket," he replied nonchalantly. I ran -- yes, ran -- out of that small room and re-iterated that there should be only one person in there and for very good reason.
He risked my life, his life, the life of everyone with whom his children have contact for the next couple of weeks. All that after all shuls being closed and an urgent announcement on erev Shabbos that care for COVID-19 is to be treated with all the stringencies of piku'ach nefesh -- a life threatening illness. For what? Because he was in a hurry and couldn't wait five minutes? Because he was so inconsiderate that he couldn't ask me to give him a few minutes to retrieve something?
Please, please, please take this seriously.
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